Swell Forecast

OK... I don't know how to say this, so I'll just show you...



What you see here is a swell forecast model from WaveWatch. For those of us from non-metric nations, click on surf height and then on the feet/meters thing at the bottom and move your mouse over 'scale' to see the predicted surf height in the animation...press the 'play' button if the animation isn't moving. Yeah...that's what I said; my reaction exactly. The green blob you see motoring towards Sumatra is predicted surf heights of 16-18 feet being thrown up from a swell hitting Western Australia on Friday where the predicted wave heights down under are pushing 40 feet in Perth!! Think Bodhi @ Bells Beach at the end of Point Break, for those in the know. HAHA!! For those of you living in 2 story homes, 16-18' is about as high as your 2nd story ceiling. For those of you looking for a more absurd example, take a 6' tall man and ask him to stand on a regulation basketball rim with his arms raised to the roof...that's how tall 18' is.

Now, as with every weather/surf forecast, the only thing guaranteed is that nothing is guaranteed. The wave heights might only be 6-feet...they could also be 18-20 feet; noone knows until you paddle out. Like my dad always says, being a weather forecaster is the only job in the world where you're paid to be consistently wrong and you get to keep your job and surf forecasters are cut from the same cloth.

Fear not, concerned readers; your intrepid author will exercise extreme discretion when deciding to tackle waves that could swallow a bus, let alone a 6'2 guy on a 6'7 piece of foam and fiberglass. I think the largest waves I've ever paddled out in around here were around 10-11' and I never successfully caught one of the set waves, but the way the waves break here at that size vs. over there at that size is a whole different discussion I'll spare you from reading. This might be a great day to paddle out and sit outside the lineup and grab some photos waiting for a break in the action later in the day at a less exposed break. Also, the beauty of the islands is that if the surf is pumping in one place and too much to handle you can seek refuge on the opposite side of the island from where the swell is hitting...in this case, we might be hanging out at the breaks on the N or NE parts of the islands as this is a large and in-charge SW swell

This little embedded object should work for eternity so check this post often to see what the forecast/ conditions are while I'm there. From what I've read it should be big the first few days, then back down a bunch then build back up near the end of the trip so with any luck I'll get to experience the entire gamut of waves...

Tomorrow, final thoughts before I leave for my trip, ala Jerry Springer...with less violence and drama.